Tim Prosser’s Futuring Weblog

Entries from February 2008

The Future of the Paper Towel, and Related Nano-Thoughts

February 28, 2008 · 2 Comments

I guess I just worry too much, but, lately, every time I take a paper towel from the dispenser at work or toss a bit of plastic wrap in the trash, I can’t help but have thoughts like “Here goes another cup of oil.”,  ”How can we handle 6+ billion people all doing this, every day?”, and ”Where will the energy and material come from to permit this in the future?”.  Then, in lieu of feeling depressed and more worried, I have to spur myself to think creatively about it, and sometimes I run to the computer to write another entry in this blog.  So … how ARE we going to handle 6 billion people who all want to have paper towels, electric lights, houses, cars and other modern conveniences when they actually get them? (more…)

Categories: conservation · nanotechnology
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Unsustainable Consumption Levels Point to the Population Problem

February 27, 2008 · Leave a Comment

It is clear that the main driver for the increasing cost and decreasing availability of natural resources is consumption, so, at some point, consumption must decline, unless we can find ways to make the products we use out of dirt (finite, with other issues), water (low cost supplies already diminishing), or air (quality already compromised in highest population areas).  Interestingly, projects have been in place to make bricks out of dirt (link) for centuries, but they are uneconomical in the developed world because they trade off material cost for labor cost.  Contaminated dirt is also a problem.  Consumption reduction is still needed, though.  How will that happen? (more…)

Categories: conservation · ecology
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Energy Supplies – Bridging the Gap to Sustainability

February 21, 2008 · Leave a Comment

As concern grows around the world about the risks presented by the energy shortages that could result from a variety of sources, it is apparent that more risk mitigation concepts need to be incorporated into our infrastructure.  This will take years, decades really, and it is unclear how much attention is being paid by the corporations and governments that must create and implement the solutions to problems we are only beginning to recognize as possibilities.  I keep thinking of examples of such problems, measures that might be implemented to address them, and how things might be different 20 years from now as we (hopefully) make substantial moves towards sustainability.

How, for example, can we address the risk that sea level might rise by anywhere from a couple of feet to perhaps twenty feet in just a few years or decades?  (more…)

Categories: climate change · ecology · energy infrastructure

Transportation Energy Use – Is a Paradigm Shift Occurring?

February 20, 2008 · 2 Comments

How much of our immense energy use, especially in North America, is related to transportation?  Is it so much that, as our current energy sources become increasingly expensive, a major paradigm shift in how we work, travel, and interact will come about?  This has been discussed in depth since the rise of the big North American cities in the early 20th century, and much predictive thought and research has been recorded, with many visions and creative plans developed.  Unfortunately, the economics of commerce and developments in popular culture have driven us away from increased efficiency and in quite the opposite direction: housing development trends, ever widening superhighways, and the immense popularity of sophisticated individual transportation (cars, trucks, etc.) have created amazing and far flung urban and suburban sprawl, and infrastructure specialized to handle the heavy traffic.  Unfortunately, the infrastructure and sprawl specifically discourage more efficient alternatives.  Now we are stuck with the need to have extremely expensive and inefficient vehicles, mostly of which rarely carry more than a single person, in order to work or obtain the products we need.   What will change when energy costs are twice, three times, or ten times what they are today? (more…)

Categories: conservation · culture change · economics · energy infrastructure · sustainability · technology · telecommuting · transportation
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Disposing of the Disposable Society, Part 5 – The Economics and the Information

February 18, 2008 · 1 Comment

The keys to improving our relationship with our environment, especially in the area of disposable products and packaging, are at least two-fold.  Economic aspects will govern what we can afford to do, while information on our choices will govern what we choose to do, and the ways in which these two general factors play out is different between individuals and corporations.  (By corporations, I intend to include human organizations of practically any type, because they function differently than individuals.)

First, packaging is a necessity, and while I expect that some disposable packaging is required for sanitary reasons, there are ways in which such packaging can be handled that minimize waste and landfill space.  The options include recyclable packaging, packaging that is organic and can be composted, and edible packaging, for starters.  But how do people and corporations know what to choose? (more…)

Categories: conservation · ecology · economics

Is the Population Explosion a Good Thing in the Long Run?

February 15, 2008 · Leave a Comment

The human population explosion certainly presents huge problems to the human race (and life on the planet in general).  Like almost any aspect of human life, it presents good and bad aspects, and, while it has been increasingly easy thus far to see the negative consequences, the longer view of centuries and millennia begs the question, is this actually a good thing? (more…)

Categories: ecology
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Disposing of the Disposable Society, Part 4 – the Importance of Public Understanding

February 15, 2008 · 1 Comment

Increased public knowledge of the true, comparative costs of different types of recycling will lead to better decisions about both purchases and recycling behavior.    Unfortunately, people don’t know what they don’t know.  People and companies need to be helped to understand which types of recycling are more efficient in terms of total requirements for energy and materials, for example, and that requires in-depth study of the entire life cycle of products and packaging.  Without good information, the public can not make the environmentally-responsible choices that can buy time and move our society towards sustainability.  So, where will this information come from, and why is it not more prevalent? (more…)

Categories: conservation · ecology · education
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Attitudes about Growth in Business, Politics, and the Press

February 12, 2008 · 3 Comments

In the press, I constantly hear the repetitive mantra of “growth”, with the implicit assumption that growth is a good thing for business and the economy in general.  Have we been lulled into this sensibility by the period of rapid population expansion we’ve experienced in the historically-recent past?  Certainly markets for almost any good have been expanding with the population, and growth has become synonymous with prosperity in almost any endeavor (except when one is fighting cancer … ;-) .   Population can’t continue to increase forever, though.  When will the concept of growth be reconsidered in mainstream human culture?

(more…)

Categories: ecology
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It’s the Population Explosion! – more

February 12, 2008 · 1 Comment

I get so fed up with people trashing Al Gore for being a hypocrite, or thrashing around about whether or not climate change is happening, caused by humans, or an issue at all.  There actually IS a problem, but it’s neither Al Gore nor those who attack him — it’s much bigger.

(more…)

Categories: Uncategorized
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Does Nanotechnology Lead to Microtechnology?

February 6, 2008 · Leave a Comment

Current nanotechnology, involving man-made objects or machines less than 100 nm (nanometers) in size, is well into the development phase, and the first practical applications are already on the market. (See information on current sunscreens using nanotechnology, and the risks of using them. link) Research into nanotechnology has currently created only very simple machines: small gear sets, electric motors, and radio receivers, to name a few. Nano-sized machines have some inherent limitations, however.

I’ve read that physical factors like Brownian motion and friction create a very challenging environment for nano-machines, and are not easy for the average person to comprehend without additional information and a better understanding of such factors. So, what is the next step towards realizing the value of nanotechnology? (more…)

Categories: nanotechnology
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Disposing of the Disposable Society, Part 3 – The Role of Government

February 6, 2008 · Leave a Comment

As a follow-up on my earlier entries describing ideas for escaping the disposable packaging that puts so much of our petroleum reserves into landfills every day, I thought about how such changes might be achieved.  Must government action be involved?

(more…)

Categories: conservation · economics

What is Sustainability?

February 1, 2008 · Leave a Comment

To be truly sustainable, a society should not be static or stable, as the environment rarely is that, but must have the dynamic ability to adjust to inevitable changes.  This requires that resources and systems NOT be near their limits.  Operating at the limits of capacity leaves no headroom, and significantly increases the risk of catastrophe or collapse.   (more…)

Categories: Uncategorized
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