Tim Prosser’s Futuring Weblog

Entries from May 2008

Nanotech Ideas Fuel the Imagination

May 30, 2008 · Leave a Comment

New nanotechnology developments appear frequently these days.  Solar cells enhanced by nanotechnology are being worked on by a number of companies (link).  But what about other radical ideas, such as microscopic noodles (link)?  How can a noodle bowl be combined with other nanotechnology for our benefit? (more…)

Categories: nanotechnology
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Undocumented Children, Enabled by Technology, May Challenge Nationalism in Coming Decades

May 29, 2008 · 3 Comments

One third of the world’s children have no birth certificate or other proof of citizenship.  I was shocked by an NPR interview this morning that made this statement.  Unicef has a lot more specific information on the vast numbers of children without papers, citizenship, or any benefits at all (link)(link).  Someday those children will be adults, probably a quarter or more of the world’s adults, and will represent a lot of power and influence, a lot of potential voters and customers, an army just waiting for a way to organize and some leaders to organize it.  The implications are staggering, and intriguing. (more…)

Categories: communications · economics · overpopulation
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Iraq War Cost Could Have Better Served as Progress Towards Sustainability … but NO-O-O!!

May 27, 2008 · Leave a Comment

Talk about lost opportunities! Bloggers are having a field day with “What the cost of the Iraq War COULD have been used for …” (link). The BBC and others waded in with articles totaling up the costs and suggesting alternatives that might have been pursued (link) (link) (link). All this is very interesting and sad, but the real costs will go on and on, expressed in missed opportunities and huge tax dollars going to pay the interest on the debt the Bush Whitehouse has loaded on the backs of our descendants. (more…)

Categories: economics · overpopulation
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Education Provides Hope for Sustainability, Though Some Forces Oppose It

May 27, 2008 · Leave a Comment

Improvements in education are needed to ease the path to sustainability.  Creativity and critical thinking will be needed to deal with the problems of overpopulation, and educational systems that promote these skills aren’t always prevalent, and are not without opposition in both the developed and undeveloped countries.  Berenice Bleedorn, a major proponent of creativity development in educational and other settings, wrote the following:

Although some of the planet’s resources are finite, the reason for unwarranted optimism is that the HUMAN MIND IS UNLIMITED IN ITS CAPACITY TO THINK, grow, plan ahead, and act in terms for the common good.
- BERENICE BLEEDORN / THE CREATIVITY FORCE IN EDUCATION, BUSINESS AND BEYOND 

In the developed countries, opposition to good education is amplified by the media, however, while in underdeveloped countries it may come from both religious and government groups. (more…)

Categories: education · overpopulation
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Contrary to Certain Claims, Decreasing Population is Not the Big Problem

May 22, 2008 · 6 Comments

Claims that population reduction, and not population growth, is our biggest problem are misleading, and only true if one ignores other trends.  I have run across several articles recently making the point that population reduction, seen in the most developed countries, is the real problem that deserves our attention, and that even in the developing countries birthrates are dropping.  In at least one of the articles it was implied that a falling birthrate, and inevitably falling population, is a problem for business.  Is this really a problem we need to address? (more…)

Categories: overpopulation
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Extended Non-Families, An Alternative for the Aging Childless

May 22, 2008 · Leave a Comment

People in a variety of situations, and in both developed and underdeveloped countries, are concerned about elder care.  Unfortunately, this is a key force behind the prevalence of large families and the resulting population explosion in underdeveloped countries.  I keep thinking about the news interview I heard recently with a parent in Pakistan (I think it was) who said that the reason they had a large family was so they could be assured that at least a couple of their children would be around to aid them in their old age.  Their assumption was that conditions in Pakistan were not going to get better, and that, between the economic and political problems, they would likely lose at least some of their children to disease or violence before they became old enough to need daily assistance.  Having someone to support you in old age isn’t just an issue in third world countries, however.  Childless individuals and couples in the developed countries have the same concern, and another option is becoming apparent. (more…)

Categories: education · overpopulation
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A Positive and Cost Effective Path to Birthrate Reduction and Population Control

May 20, 2008 · Leave a Comment

Why are third world families so large?  In poor agrarian societies there is a direct incentive to have more children, as it provides more hands to do the work and makes the family farm more productive and profitable.  It doesn’t appear to me, however, that there are many poor agrarian societies left, and a quick look at world population trends shows that in most of the less-developed countries the bulk of the population has moved or is moving to the big cities.  There must be other reasons for large families in these fast growing countries. (more…)

Categories: economics · education · overpopulation
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Achieving Sustainability Will Involve Birthrate Reduction, But How Can That Be Achieved?

May 16, 2008 · 5 Comments

Let’s face it: the earth has too many humans, using natural resources up too quickly, and the population will be forced to decline to a sustainable level sooner or later.  Achieving a sustainable situation will require that there be a lot less humans, especially when fossil fuels become scarce.  That means the human birthrate must decline.  For population to be reduced without a birthrate reduction would mean that average lifespans would have to decline to near the minimum childbearing age, which I think is highly unlikely.  Before sustainability is reached, however, there will be a long period of change, of probably 70 to 200 or more years.  How will population most likely be reduced during that period? (more…)

Categories: education · overpopulation
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Everyone’s Help is Needed in the Pursuit of Sustainability

May 13, 2008 · Leave a Comment

Moving towards sustainability requires everyone’s involvement. The biggest barrier to accomplishing the things we need to in order to move towards sustainability is in our own heads.  Too often, the people I talk with about sustainability and the global situation express either an indifferent attitude, downright rejection, or disbelief of what most of us consider to be facts.  I see a couple of common threads in their thinking. (more…)

Categories: sustainability
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Incremental Change Towards Sustainability and How I Maintain My Lawn

May 13, 2008 · 1 Comment

Lawns are a relatively recent historical phenomenon.  Lawns didn’t exist except around the palaces of the world (think Versailles) until the 19th century (link), and even then only in the more affluent places like Great Britain.  In North America, though there were some modern lawns in the early 18th century, a good grass seed wasn’t found until around 1930, and due to the more extreme weather lawns had nowhere near the smooth appearance of those in the UK.  While lawnmowers appeared in the 1880’s, the North American lawn didn’t come into its own until homeowners had both hoses and sprinklers for use in the hot summers, and gas-powered rotary lawn mowers, and until the American Garden Club gave lawns a lot of publicity.  With a manual push-type lawnmower people could only keep a relatively small lawn, but powered mowers and irrigation made it possible for many to have huge lawns, especially in the prosperity-driven move to owning huge “McMansions” that occurred at the end of the 20th century.  So how will things change from here on? (more…)

Categories: conservation · ecology
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How Pundits Support Denial of Climate Change

May 11, 2008 · 3 Comments

Some media pundits create a system that promotes and supports denial of climate change. Most media pundits are opportunists by nature. Their pay is based on their ratings, and being controversial gets more attention than being rational. It is to their advantage not only to say startling things and draw attention to themselves, but to nurture constituencies that will bolster their ratings. That is one of the ways human nature interacts with our mass media. Unfortunately, our global challenges just happen to provide excellent opportunities for unscrupulous pundits. (more…)

Categories: climate change · education · the media
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What Will Change When (Not “If”) Fuel Costs Continue to Rise?

May 8, 2008 · 1 Comment

How will things change when gas is far past $10 per gallon?  I have been thinking what I would say when I talk to my college-age kids to try to motivate them to plan farther ahead into the future.  Certainly, rising energy costs will make significant changes in how we live.  In my case it probably won’t be justifiable to work 38 miles from home, as I do now.  The cost of fuel alone, currently (this week) passing $2500 per year (with a 30+ mpg vehicle), will before long make it worth it to take a job that pays $10-15,000 less per year in my own small city.  When it costs 30 cents per mile to drive, and especially if average incomes continue to sag, people will start really cutting back on their driving, but that only goes so far.  I think bigger changes in behavior will emerge. (more…)

Categories: economics · transportation
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Worshipping the False Idol of Growth

May 6, 2008 · Leave a Comment

American culture worships at the feet of the great god Growth.  It becomes increasingly clear, though, what a false idol it is.  In practically every report of financial news the word Growth comes up, sooner or later.  Reporters use the word as if it is a given that profitability can only be achieved through Growth, and that prosperity, the lifestyles of the average people, and indeed the entire world economy, are dependent on it.  Is this really the case?  Are we lost without Growth?  What will happen when we have no more room to grow? (more…)

Categories: conservation · economics · overpopulation · transportation
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Biotechnology and Nanotechnology Are Merging … in the Classroom

May 2, 2008 · 3 Comments

Biotech is coming, quickly, and with nanotechnology helping.  NPR broadcast an item in the past week about college students at MIT engineering e. coli bacteria to have a minty fresh smell (instead of poopy one) when growing, and then a banana smell when the culture is mature (link) (link).  This reveals a technological capability that was unthinkable to most of us a decade or less ago and goes far beyond the chemistry sets children got for their birthdays in the 1950’s.  Young people today are making biotech and the custom engineering of microorganisms an increasingly casual undertaking, as nanotechnology-enhanced bioengineering demonstration kits are appearing in classrooms.  How long will it be before bioengineering is a popular hobby among young people, and … what happened to working on cars and playing in rock bands? (more…)

Categories: education · nanotechnology
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Disposing of the Disposable Society, Part 6 – Repair Versus Replacement

May 1, 2008 · Leave a Comment

Replacement seems wasteful compared with repair, but is it really?  As we strive to make our stuff last ten times as long in the interest of sustainability and cost savings, will repair shops experience a resurgence?  Over the decades my unscientific eye has detected a significant decrease in the numbers of shoe repair shops, TV and appliance repair shops, and tailors, to name a few.  At first thought it would appear that we will be looking for repairs from time to time to avoid the cost (and ecological impact) of replacement.  Are repairs destined to generally remain too uneconomical to pursue?  How can we be more frugal and decrease our waste stream of discarded products? (more…)

Categories: conservation · economics
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