Better Regulation of Business Will Be Necessary as Population Explodes and Energy Prices Rise

Big corporations are like big sharks.  They’re not evil.  They’re just eating. I read this clever observation several years ago on CDBaby, and had the immediate realization that WE have to swim with those sharks, and our shark cage (government) just isn’t protecting us like it once did.  On this, the eve of release of Michael Moore’s new movie “Capitalism: A Love Story“, I just have to write about the impact of capitalism on our future, and how we might possibly avoid sliding into an almost feudal state where a tiny upper class of owners dominates a huge but painfully poor mass of wage slaves. 

The Future of Energy: Things Never Change So Much …

Things never change so much as they stay the same. That’s the saying, anyway, and I figure I’ll see how things balance out if I stick around long enough.  I expect that there will be surprises, and some advances people expect won’t happen, or will be disappointing, while other inventions will become mainstays of our civilization.  Inevitably, the deciding factor behind the decision to discard or keep something involves money, and I believe that will extend to our energy infrastructure.

The “Glide Path” to Sustainability will Raise Recycling to a Large Scale Art

As population declines in the latter half of the 21st century new construction will be cut to a minimum, and renovation and recycling of existing buildings will dominate the construction industry.  Few new buildings will be needed as populstion decreases, growth will no longer be the predominant economic theme, and decreasing tax bases will reduce public funding. People may move out of some neighborhoods and towns and collect in others, probably to live closer to places of employment, education, etc., and reduce their cost of living.  Will smart individuals start working today to build profitable businesses that take advantage of the changes in our future?

Will Human Overpopulation Eventually Cause Lemming-like Mass Migrations?

Animal populations migrate to find food or better living conditions, often in huge numbers, when populations become too large for available resources. For the caribou, whales, birds, and other creatures an annual migration is part of their ritual of survival, but some other species, such as lemmings, only migrate when under pressure. Humans have managed to remain more sedentary as we invented shelter, clothing, and technology to keep us comfortable and well fed. How will this change when the cheap energy we use to sustain our food production and comfort becomes too expensive for most people? Will we see larger and larger “migrations” from the poorest and most overpopulated countries to the most developed?  Have the migrations already begun?

Infrastructure Will Change Significantly as Population Inevitably Declines Towards a Sustainable Level

Studies of past population reveal some valuable facts with implications for our future. Given that, before the widespread use of fossil fuels, there were apparently never more than about a billion humans on the planet, the fact that we are over six billion now and climbing fast, and that fossil fuels prices are already rising due to increased scarcity, it is probable that human population will decline back toward the one billion level in the next century. This suggests a variety of scenarios for making the adjustment. Most scenarios sound bad, but the challenge to us is to create and implement long term plans to manage the change. Given what we can anticipate, can we sufficiently raise the importance of taking the long term view and making long range plans to minimize the pain of the adjustments we face in the future? The economy and infrastructure will have to change significantly, but how? How will the business world change in response?

Why Can’t I Shingle My Roof with Solar Cells Now?

Why can’t I shingle my roof with solar cells now? Years ago I heard about a company in the Southwestern U.S. that makes polymer solar cells in sheets, so inexpensive that they were predicted to be able to provide a roofing product that would generate electricity by perhaps 2003. Since I first heard of them, I have heard of other companies in Europe and the United States with even more interesting technologies – solar cells being printed by ink jet printers on rolls of polymer, and which use nano-scale particles to achieve much higher efficiency than previous, similar concepts. Where are they, and why aren’t we seeing these new technologies coming on-line?

Does Keeping Fuel Prices Low Hurt Us in the Long Run?

Does fighting price increases caused by supply-demand forces stop the free market from working and worsen our future problems? In other words, does prosecuting price gougers during gas shortages hurt us in the long run? I’m going to take a potentially-unpopular position here for the sake of argument and as a thought starter. Price gouging sounds like a real crime – sellers taking advantage of buyers who have serious needs and no recourse – but isn’t that just the free market at work? By making laws against sudden, demand-induced price increases aren’t we artificially controlling the price and removing people’s incentives to change their behavior for the better? During gas shortages people panic and hoard supplies, but wouldn’t high prices make people think of more effective ways to deal with the crisis before it happens the next time?  The good news is that  many people seem to be getting the message: fossil fuels won’t last forever, and we need alternatives now, or as soon as possible.

Southeastern U.S. Gas Shortages after Hurricane Ike Reveal How Far We Are from Sustainability

Aftereffects of hurricane Ike revealed a need for consciousness-raising in the American Southeast (and the U.S. in general). I went on-line and viewed TV reports and newspaper stories from the Carolinas Monday (Sept 29, 2008), which said that 4 of 15 gasoline refineries in the Houston area were still shut down since the hurricane 2 weeks earlier, and many others were still operating at reduced capacity, but the situation in the Carolinas should improve and be fine in a week. In the meantime they suggested people buy gas only when their tank was below one quarter full, and that some gas stations were limiting customers to ten gallons per visit. Police also asked that people stop calling 9-1-1 to ask where they could find gas, as it was impeding real emergency calls. Many stories were hopeful, but none sounded certain. Worse yet, none offered any suggestions for people to actually save gas, such as by carpooling, taking the bus, bicycling, walking, or planning out and combining trips, among other solutions that would actually reduce gas demand. I wasn’t surprised, then, that absolutely nobody mentioned any long term solutions, let alone that our overpopulation of the region and the planet is at the root of the problem. Does the word clueless come to mind?

Where Might We Be in Two or Three Decades?

Two or three decades from now I foresee the freeway next to my house carrying quiet, streamlined buses and trucks as well as small, streamlined cars. Most will run on electricity, many with additional power generators using fuel cells, natural gas, hydrogen, or something newer. Most will be running in an attended autopilot mode, staying in their lanes, avoiding collisions, and optimizing energy use on a continuous basis. I won’t be traveling as much, however, as much more of my life will be carried out in a virtual way over the internet. I will work at home, walk or take public transport almost any time I need to go somewhere, and will take a high speed train a couple of times a year to see my daughter and brother-in-law in the Carolinas. What else might change, and how much?

Nanotechnology Developments in Paint Show Promise

Nanotechnology-enhanced paints and coatings are already on the market. Several companies have collaborated to create a paint product that containes no toxic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and which has the additional functions of stopping algae and fungal growth while also destroying bacteria the come in contact with it (link). The initial application is intended to be doctor’s offices, clinics, and hospitals, but I am sure there will be other uses such as biological laboratories and even breweries and wineries, where the intrusion of unwanted microorganisms can cause serious production and quality problems. A Wired magazine article from February of 2006 detailed a variety of other nanotechnology applications in the area of paint and coatings (link). Paint manufacturer Behr is now selling a line of kitchen and bath paints that resist stains and mildew (link), and giant Dupont is getting into the act with paints that cure in seconds under ultraviolet light and have enhanced properties (link).  In October 2007 Industrial Nanotech announced a line of nanotech-enhanced, thermally insulating paints that have the interesting property of generating electricity from the difference in temperature between the two sides of the surface they are coating (link).  These new products are just a beginning, however.

Lop-sided Focus on Climate Change Ignores Other Problems; Obscures the Root Problem: Overpopulation

Many feel the climate change risk is overstated and unsupported by evidence. Among websites that question whether global warming is supported by evidence, Anthony Watt’s Watt’s Up With That website is, in my opinion, probably the most credible, and its popularity continues to grow. His more than half million hits per month include enough commenters expressing significant weather knowledge and reasonable positions (among the Gore haters and anti-government types) to make it worth reading, in my opinion. It is clear that the movie “An Inconvenient Truth” and a lot of press, some of the highest profile releases coming from James Hansen, head of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies at NASA, has stirred a lot of concern worldwide. Personally, I am more concerned with the many problems, climate change possibly included, caused by the huge increase in the global human population over the last century.

Biofuels Which Use Existing Energy Infrastructure May Be Implemented First

Biofuels (link) appear to be among the best alternative energy sources under development.  Production yields per acre for advanced biofuel sources such as algae, for example, significantly exceed those of both food and non-food crops, and it is possible that both gaseous and liquid fuels can be produced in quantities that could make a meaningful dent in the demand for fossil fuels within a decade or two.  As for any energy source, though, while innovators tend to focus on power generation technologies, delivery and storage systems may be even more important in making them economically useful. 

Calls for Offshore Drilling and More Nuclear Plants May Be Ill-Advised

Panic over rising energy costs is something we can’t afford.  It would be easy to panic about energy supplies when faced with the 33% gasoline price rise in 16 weeks such as I documented here in the Detroit area.  Panic doesn’t put one in the mood to make sound choices, however.  Now conservatives, some of whom stand to make a lot of money if their advice is followed, are telling everyone that we in the US need to start drilling for oil on our continental shelves (link) and in previously forbidden parts of Alaska, and that more investment in new fission-based nuclear power plants is needed (link).  I believe that, once again, those with profit motives are going to try to play on the fears and desires of average citizens in order to become richer.  Fortunately there are many more who have opposed increased oil drilling and more nuclear power plants (link), and with good reasons. 

Iraq Provides Illuminating Insights on Decentralized Solar Power

Rebuilding Iraq’s economy could go faster with solar power.  A radio story on Iraq this morning cited the fact that banks there have video surveillance systems, among other security measures, but that the systems don’t work when the power is off, which averages a significant part of each day.  Banks, obviously, are a key part of reviving the Iraqi economy, but while banks are being re-established in neighborhoods where violence has declined, their security is still an issue due to daily power outages.  This presents an obvious opportunity for solar power systems, even if they only power the security systems.  It also brings out the question of why, in a country with a lot of dry weather and little cloud cover, solar power isn’t being pursued with vigor in all its forms. 

Will Nanotechnology Provide Us Black Houses That Generate and Store Electricity?

Mass-produced nanotechnology-enhanced products hold great promise in the pursuit of sustainability.  Nanotechnology is unfamiliar territory – such a (relatively) new area of science that it appears we’re still learning what we don’t know.  How, for instance, can you assemble something that is orders of magnitude smaller than any available tools?  We have not yet developed nanobots or nano-scale machines capable of manipulating materials effectively in any quantity.  Moving particles around with electric or magnetic charges, for example, is not an easy thing to do, nor does it lend itself to mass production.  It appears we won’t be able to produce nanomaterials in useful volumes for some time to come if we have to wait for nano-scale tools to be developed.  Mass production is needed both to supply the needed quantities and to lower the cost so the technology is affordable.  So where might this take us?