New Materials May Emerge Solely to Support Nanotechnology

Self-assembling materials may require new directions in materials development. One of the most amazing advancements in nanotechnology is the ability to engineer materials to self-assemble into new materials or add new attributes.  The ability of certain molecules to bond in planned ways with others and produce new materials is at the cutting edge of nanotechnology product development, and will probably remain there for some time to come.

One-by-one assembly of nano-scale devices is practically useless for most applications. The assembly of nano-scale devices on a one-by-one basis yields so few of the devices that it has little practical use except in research.  To make practical use of nanotechnology devices it is necessary to make them in enormous numbers and, so far, self-assembly seems the only option.  Inventing new materials with applications in self assembly could be one of the next big directions in science.

A key direction for advancement is in the mastery of self assembly at larger scales. While nanotechnology products are currently limited mostly to coatings and special materials, the promise of micro-scale and larger devices being produced by self assembly is great.  After all, every living thing is an instance of self assembly.  While we are a long way from creating life forms, this hints at amazing advances in functionality for the devices we will create.

New materials that can be used in self-assembly processes could gain major importance. Materials that previously had no useful application may turn out to have potential as catalysts of self assembly, or as supporting materials in self assembly processes.  Devices larger than nano scale might be self-assembled in fluid suspensions, and the fluids involved may be new to us, for example.  Chemistry and physics will be key disciplines in the pursuit of commercial viable self assembly processes, and the results will be exciting.

As always, I welcome your comments.  – Tim

Interesting Information:
Self Assembly and Nanotechnology,  George M. Whitesides, Department of Chemistry, Harvard University

Major Downturns Have an Upside – The Emergence and Growth of New Business Ideas

Economic recessions create bursts of economic and cultural change. Did the buggy and coach business just fade away?  Or did those companies die most quickly in the Panic of 1907-1908 and the Post-WWI Recession, only to be replaced by rapidly expanding businesses involved with motor vehicles, and a rising economic tide to lift them?  What new inventions attained increasingly levels of acceptance and use as people struggled for every advantage to dig themselves out of the recessionary problems of the Great Depression?  Were businesses developing lighter construction materials, alternative energy systems, and fuel conservation technologies some of the positive outcomes of the Oil Crisis and recession of 1973-1975?

Whose Lives Will Change Most as Fossil Fuel Prices Rise?

Fossil fuel prices will rise. There’s no doubting that, in the absence of any other supply of cheap, high volume energy, fossil fuel supplies will decline, and prices will rise as population continues to explode.  It is interesting to examine who is most likely to feel the effects of the change, as I don’t think many people, at least in North America where I live, are thinking about it.  In the end, it appears that the middle classes in the most developed countries and in the temperate climates will feel the effects the most.

The “Glide Path” to Sustainability will Raise Recycling to a Large Scale Art

As population declines in the latter half of the 21st century new construction will be cut to a minimum, and renovation and recycling of existing buildings will dominate the construction industry.  Few new buildings will be needed as populstion decreases, growth will no longer be the predominant economic theme, and decreasing tax bases will reduce public funding. People may move out of some neighborhoods and towns and collect in others, probably to live closer to places of employment, education, etc., and reduce their cost of living.  Will smart individuals start working today to build profitable businesses that take advantage of the changes in our future?

Will Complicated Economic Cycles Recur and Worsen as Population Explodes?

There are lessons in the current worldwide economic decline as to how the global situation will interact with the population explosion in the coming decades. This recession appears to have been set up and triggered by a range of economic and political factors. A short but fierce spike in oil prices on top of a real estate price bubble combined with an regulatory trend going back decades that not only allowed banks to take on far too much risk, but also promoted a business culture in which debt became the lifeblood of businesses around the world.  Why did businesses take on so much risk?  The short term-focused profit motive, instead of good long term planning, seems to be a root cause.

The Shark Cage is Rusty – How Capitalism and Government Might Change for the Better

Corporations, by their nature, are focused on profits. Unfortunately, this causes them to sub-optimize the overall results for society. This is one of the shortcomings of the current capitalist system. Corporations, in their soulless drive for profits, will take your last dollar if they can, and will influence governments and drive them away from their original purpose, to ensure the common good and the positive evolution of society in ways that reflect the principle that, as they say in business school, “a rising tide lifts all boats.”  I found an interesting and pointed expression of this last year.

Future Cost Increases for Fossil Fuels Will Change Architecture

My new job puts me in a large windowless warehouse-like building, much of which has been turned into office space, cube farms with offices embedded in the walls nearby.  At any given time nobody inside knows if it is raining or if the sun is shining, if it’s day or night.  As in most commercial buildings, the lights and ventilation fans run almost all the time, which seems costly.  One nearby building has a small wind turbine on it that runs a lot of the time, however, and another I see near work has a solar panel on the roof.   All that has made me consider what the buildings of thirty years from now will be like.  Certainly they will be quite different, and I expect the inevitable rise in the cost of fossil fuels, and all energy sources “in sympathy”, to be an important influence on their architecture.  So what will commercial buildings be like in the future?

What Will Happen to Businesses When Energy Cost Eclipses Labor Cost?

Today the cost of labor is the biggest single cost element for many businesses, and drives most decisions. The rise of fossil fuel prices will not be smooth,  however, as we have seen in 2008, when oil prices doubled in a matter of months and then fell back to 30% of their peak in a few months more.  During these spikes, and in the longer term as fossil fuel sources become more difficult and costly to extract, energy costs will rise to a level that challenges or surpasses labor as the biggest component of cost for many or most businesses.  The law of supply and demand also kicks in as population continues to expand, and labor costs in many industries will fall as increasing numbers of people are seeking those jobs.  At the same time, rising energy costs will reduce or eliminate the advantage of manufacturing in “low cost countries” such as China.  How will businesses react?  Will the net effect be to cause people to generally live at a lower economic level and make less money for equivalent work compared with today?  Will manufacturing of progressively lower cost and higher margin goods return to the developed countries?

Trading in Abstractions – Is This Why We (and Wall Street) are in Trouble?

We are surrounded by financial abstractions we can rarely see, and even less often understand. Trading of securities created by bundling debts, for example, is an abstraction.  While there may be some assets behind those debts (they may be secured debts such as mortgages), the value of a debt is partly comprised of an expectation that the debt will be repaid.  This expectation is an abstraction, as you can’t easily measure it or place a value on it.  This is just the tip of the iceberg, however.  On top of that there are also commodity futures and other financial abstractions where the value is at least partly based on promises, expectations, and hopes.  People buy and sell financial instruments based on abstract notions such as debt every day.  The problem with trading in abstractions is that since there are few real assets attached to them, and thus little real value supporting them, emotions have an inordinately greater impact on how we value them.  Is this a key factor behind the incredible volatility and risk in our markets?  Is the fact that we have extended our financial world into heavy dependency on debt and other abstractions creating major risks for us all?  Does trading in abstractions put as at risk of panic and unrealistic expectations, positive or negative?  Given the enormous scale and presence of debt in our lives today, have we built a house of paper that can dance wildly in the winds of our emotions, hopes, and expectations, and which can therefore make and destroy fortunes within days or hours based purely on the news or propaganda? Given that such matters have become only more complicated over time, and are already beyond the ability of almost everyone to fully understand them, will they continue to become even more complicated in the future?

Infrastructure Will Change Significantly as Population Inevitably Declines Towards a Sustainable Level

Studies of past population reveal some valuable facts with implications for our future. Given that, before the widespread use of fossil fuels, there were apparently never more than about a billion humans on the planet, the fact that we are over six billion now and climbing fast, and that fossil fuels prices are already rising due to increased scarcity, it is probable that human population will decline back toward the one billion level in the next century. This suggests a variety of scenarios for making the adjustment. Most scenarios sound bad, but the challenge to us is to create and implement long term plans to manage the change. Given what we can anticipate, can we sufficiently raise the importance of taking the long term view and making long range plans to minimize the pain of the adjustments we face in the future? The economy and infrastructure will have to change significantly, but how? How will the business world change in response?

Will Rising Energy Costs De-Globalize Us into Regional Economies?

Short term fluctuations in energy prices notwithstanding, the long term trend of rising energy costs will affect commerce and change where our goods are manufactured. Last May I heard a radio interview in which an importer in New York City said the cost of moving a container of goods from China to NYC had increased in less than a year from $4000 to $5600, and it occurred to me that this is a greater increase than the gross margin on many of the less expensive goods currently being shipped.  Will manufacturing return to the affluent areas like North America and Europe in a reversal of the globalization trend we’ve seen in the last few decades, due to increasing energy prices?

Growth Can’t Continue Forever, So What’s Next?

Perhaps our many wonderful scientific advancements and ever-more sophisticated civilization have blinded us to certain realities. We have enjoyed the benefits of cheap energy for the past few hundred years, first with coal and then with the addition of petroleum, and our population, scientific knowledge, and standards of living have expanded greatly. Eventually, however, the easiest to obtain of our fuel sources will begin to run out, and the cost of production will inevitably rise to the point where we won’t be able to afford to use it as we did before. We have become so accustomed to our situation that we take growth for granted, and it seems the entire business world takes it as a given that success and profitability are possible only through growth. Since growth can’t continue forever, what will replace it? Are we smart enough to avoid a precipitous decline and the pain that suggests, and find a new paradigm that permits more controllable change and is sustainable in the long term?

Delivery Food of the Future?

Energy cost increases, and their effects on food prices, raise deeper questions. As fossil fuel costs increase, and in the period before a seriously viable substitute like fusion-derived electricity arrives (I’m guessing 2040 or later), economies of scale will continue to increase in importance, especially in the provision of what will become relatively lower cost commodities such as food. Will energy prices pull food prices higher to the point where we will once again have only locally produced food? Will everyone, even in suburbia, be turning their front yards (and every available patch of dirt) into a garden to reduce their food bills? Or, thanks to large scale agribusiness, will food remain cheap enough to have its cost increases eclipsed by those of energy itself?

Will Globalization Be Slowed By Rising Energy Costs?

Energy is the backbone of our civilization, and the clear enabler of globalization of business and our great agricultural and manufacturing productivity.  Cheap energy has allowed us to be comfortable and prolific, increasing the world population rapidly during the past century, and making my enjoyment of the apple on my desk, which came from several thousand miles away, possible.    This is just one of the myriad benefits of globalization that would never have occurred without cheap energy, and I admit to enjoying it.  Unfortunately, the era of cheap energy must come to an end, but how might that come about?

What Will Change When (Not “If”) Fuel Costs Continue to Rise?

How will things change when gas is far past $10 per gallon?  I have been thinking what I would say when I talk to my college-age kids to try to motivate them to plan farther ahead into the future.  Certainly, rising energy costs will make significant changes in how we live.  In my case it probably won’t be justifiable to work 38 miles from home, as I do now.  The cost of fuel alone, currently (this week) passing $2500 per year (with a 30+ mpg vehicle), will before long make it worth it to take a job that pays $10-15,000 less per year in my own small city.  When it costs 30 cents per mile to drive, and especially if average incomes continue to sag, people will start really cutting back on their driving, but that only goes so far.  I think bigger changes in behavior will emerge.