Whose Lives Will Change Most as Fossil Fuel Prices Rise?

Fossil fuel prices will rise. There’s no doubting that, in the absence of any other supply of cheap, high volume energy, fossil fuel supplies will decline, and prices will rise as population continues to explode.  It is interesting to examine who is most likely to feel the effects of the change, as I don’t think many people, at least in North America where I live, are thinking about it.  In the end, it appears that the middle classes in the most developed countries and in the temperate climates will feel the effects the most.

What Will Happen to Businesses When Energy Cost Eclipses Labor Cost?

Today the cost of labor is the biggest single cost element for many businesses, and drives most decisions. The rise of fossil fuel prices will not be smooth,  however, as we have seen in 2008, when oil prices doubled in a matter of months and then fell back to 30% of their peak in a few months more.  During these spikes, and in the longer term as fossil fuel sources become more difficult and costly to extract, energy costs will rise to a level that challenges or surpasses labor as the biggest component of cost for many or most businesses.  The law of supply and demand also kicks in as population continues to expand, and labor costs in many industries will fall as increasing numbers of people are seeking those jobs.  At the same time, rising energy costs will reduce or eliminate the advantage of manufacturing in “low cost countries” such as China.  How will businesses react?  Will the net effect be to cause people to generally live at a lower economic level and make less money for equivalent work compared with today?  Will manufacturing of progressively lower cost and higher margin goods return to the developed countries?

Will Rising Energy Costs De-Globalize Us into Regional Economies?

Short term fluctuations in energy prices notwithstanding, the long term trend of rising energy costs will affect commerce and change where our goods are manufactured. Last May I heard a radio interview in which an importer in New York City said the cost of moving a container of goods from China to NYC had increased in less than a year from $4000 to $5600, and it occurred to me that this is a greater increase than the gross margin on many of the less expensive goods currently being shipped.  Will manufacturing return to the affluent areas like North America and Europe in a reversal of the globalization trend we’ve seen in the last few decades, due to increasing energy prices?

Nano-scale Devices Can Be Designed to Self-Assemble or Can Be Assembled by Genetically Engineered Viruses

Scientists at MIT have used viruses to assemble part of nano-sized batteries. (link) In the past I have written about nano-scale items that are engineered to self-assemble, that is, their molecules automatically hook together in useful ways, and how that would enable production of useful objects at a scale where few existing tools (and only extremely specialized and expensive ones, at that) can work. Now it appears that MIT researchers have successfully built most of the parts for nano-scale batteries using genetically-engineered viruses to do part of the work. Such batteries would be manufactured in extremely thin sheets, and it remains to be seen if they can be interconnected in layers or otherwise made into larger-capacity, higher efficiency packages. No data was given on the power density (power per unit volume or weight) for the batteries, but it suggests the ability to make a self-contained power source for nanobots, tiny working machines smaller than most cells and microorganisms, which many expect to be available to us in the future. This development is another key step in the development of nanotechnology, as self-contained power sources and radio communications (see my previous entries) will be essential to someday having sophisticated nano-scale robotic technology for use in medical and other industries.

Will Globalization Be Slowed By Rising Energy Costs?

Energy is the backbone of our civilization, and the clear enabler of globalization of business and our great agricultural and manufacturing productivity.  Cheap energy has allowed us to be comfortable and prolific, increasing the world population rapidly during the past century, and making my enjoyment of the apple on my desk, which came from several thousand miles away, possible.    This is just one of the myriad benefits of globalization that would never have occurred without cheap energy, and I admit to enjoying it.  Unfortunately, the era of cheap energy must come to an end, but how might that come about?

Economic Boom in Developing Countries Puts Farmers in Other Countries at Risk

The economic boom in developing countries is putting farmers and whole communities at risk in less developed countries hungry for cash.  The Chinese economic boom is becoming SE Asia and Africa’s boom (link) as China struggles to feed its booming industries, but not without problems.  The demand for input by companies in China is putting smaller, remote economic regions at risk as food farming is replaced by single-crop agrobusiness farms.  How is this occurring and what does this mean in the long term?

Gas Price Increases Prove It Again: Cost Is What Will Drive Consumers Towards Sustainability

Fuel economy has been important to commuters like me for some time.  I work 35 miles from home and spend a lot of money on gas, so the run-up in fuel prices has been of great interest.  I spent a lot of time evaluating options before buying my current vehicle, the number one consideration being achieving a reliable 30 miles per gallon or  more.  Hybrid gas-electric vehicles have become pretty common, but other new technologies have lagged as far as development and introduction, and finding an inexpensive and maximally-efficient vehicle has not been easy.  Back in early April I wrote in some notes, off the top of my head:

Nanotech Ideas Fuel the Imagination

New nanotechnology developments appear frequently these days.  Solar cells enhanced by nanotechnology are being worked on by a number of companies (link).  But what about other radical ideas, such as microscopic noodles (link)?  How can a noodle bowl be combined with other nanotechnology for our benefit?

Sustainability and Product Quality Improvement

As Dr. Saul Griffith was reported to have said in his talk at the eTech conference in March of 2008, and as I mentioned in a previous entry (link), in a sustainable future we can expect to have one tenth as much stuff, and make it last ten times as long. This will mean achieving quality and durability levels in the items we use everyday that will support, or at least approach this. There is more to this, however, and the implications for business are interesting.