The “Glide Path” to Sustainability will Raise Recycling to a Large Scale Art

As population declines in the latter half of the 21st century new construction will be cut to a minimum, and renovation and recycling of existing buildings will dominate the construction industry.  Few new buildings will be needed as populstion decreases, growth will no longer be the predominant economic theme, and decreasing tax bases will reduce public funding. People may move out of some neighborhoods and towns and collect in others, probably to live closer to places of employment, education, etc., and reduce their cost of living.  Will smart individuals start working today to build profitable businesses that take advantage of the changes in our future?

Technological Development Isn’t the Only Thing Accelerating

Can improvements in technology keep up with increasing global demand? As I look around at various discussions of the current world situation I read lots of interesting thoughts and ideas around our rapidly advancing technology. Some see the rate of technological advancement as being on a continuous exponential upswing that will result in fabulous new classes of products, free or nearly free energy, and answers to practically all of our currently-anticipated global troubles within a decade or two. Others see a rocky road of regional energy and food shortages, promising technologies taking too long too implement, and much worse. I tend to be somewhere in the middle of it all, and working to raise consciousness so that the rocky road will be less so, and the technologies will have time to arrive. The problem is that, while technological development is accelerating, world problems are, too, and population seems to be the perennial behind-the-scenes story. The real race I see is between conservation (to buy time), scientific developments, the will to implement new technologies, and increasing human numbers and per capita demand. The unfortunate fact is that demand is accelerating faster than population as the world “globalizes” and modernizes.

Energy Sources in a Sustainable World

In the future sustainable world, it is probable that per capita fossil fuel consumption will have to be very nearly zero. The use of fossil fuel resources will be restricted by cost and availability to only the most critical and high value applications. Total population, and how well we control and reduce it worldwide, will be the biggest factor in how hard the changes are, getting there, but technological advances must be significant as well. While the total use will eventually decline to a few drops of petroleum per day (or week, or month), the goal will need to be zero, and from the standpoint of long term planning we need to start pursuing that goal now. Even with the most restrictive conservation measures, we will still need a lot of energy per person. If, as I’ve read, the average person in North America today uses 16 times the world average of energy per person, and more and more people in the developing world are striving to at least approach the way we live in NA, we have a huge challenge to overcome.  (More arithmetic later …)  How will we live, and where will our energy come from in a world no longer using petroleum and coal for power?

The Future of the Paper Towel, and Related Nano-Thoughts

I guess I just worry too much, but, lately, every time I take a paper towel from the dispenser at work or toss a bit of plastic wrap in the trash, I can’t help but have thoughts like “Here goes another cup of oil.”,  ”How can we handle 6+ billion people all doing this, every day?”, and ”Where will the energy and material come from to permit this in the future?”.  Then, in lieu of feeling depressed and more worried, I have to spur myself to think creatively about it, and sometimes I run to the computer to write another entry in this blog.  So … how ARE we going to handle 6 billion people who all want to have paper towels, electric lights, houses, cars and other modern conveniences when they actually get them?

Transportation Energy Use – Is a Paradigm Shift Occurring?

How much of our immense energy use, especially in North America, is related to transportation?  Is it so much that, as our current energy sources become increasingly expensive, a major paradigm shift in how we work, travel, and interact will come about?  This has been discussed in depth since the rise of the big North American cities in the early 20th century, and much predictive thought and research has been recorded, with many visions and creative plans developed.  Unfortunately, the economics of commerce and developments in popular culture have driven us away from increased efficiency and in quite the opposite direction: housing development trends, ever widening superhighways, and the immense popularity of sophisticated individual transportation (cars, trucks, etc.) have created amazing and far flung urban and suburban sprawl, and infrastructure specialized to handle the heavy traffic.  Unfortunately, the infrastructure and sprawl specifically discourage more efficient alternatives.  Now we are stuck with the need to have extremely expensive and inefficient vehicles, mostly of which rarely carry more than a single person, in order to work or obtain the products we need.   What will change when energy costs are twice, three times, or ten times what they are today?

Disposing of the Disposable Society, Part 4 – the Importance of Public Understanding

Increased public knowledge of the true, comparative costs of different types of recycling will lead to better decisions about both purchases and recycling behavior.    Unfortunately, people don’t know what they don’t know.  People and companies need to be helped to understand which types of recycling are more efficient in terms of total requirements for energy and materials, for example, and that requires in-depth study of the entire life cycle of products and packaging.  Without good information, the public can not make the environmentally-responsible choices that can buy time and move our society towards sustainability.  So, where will this information come from, and why is it not more prevalent?